by Walter Schwartz & Luca Steinert
Last updated on December 6, 2024
for Data Visualization for Allwith Prof. Jack DoughertyTrinity College, Hartford CT, USA
The US housing market in late 2024 is facing a variety of challenges, primarily centered around rising home prices and diminished affordability. Among the biggest obstacles today is the ongoing issue of home affordability. Over the past several years, home prices have increased significantly due to factors like rising mortgage rates and inflationary pressures. As mortgage rates climb, borrowing becomes more expensive, significantly impacting new homebuyers’ ability to afford homes. This, combined with the already-high home prices, has created a situation where fewer people are able to purchase homes.
Another significant issue is the limited housing supply, particularly in desirable urban and suburban areas. Homeowners are less motivated to sell their properties, especially considering the low mortgage rates they secured in previous years. This "lock-in effect" has contributed to the tight housing market. Builders, meanwhile, are facing significant challenges related to supply chain shortages and increased construction costs, further exacerbating the shortage of affordable housing options.
As affordability continues to be a growing issue, the gap between home price growth and wage stagnation is widening. Over the past few decades, home prices have dramatically outpaced wage increases, making homeownership increasingly difficult for low- and moderate-income families. In response to this, institutions like Community Land Trusts (CLTs) have emerged as a strategy to address the affordability crisis. A Community Land Trust (CLT) is a nonprofit organization that holds and manages land on behalf of a community with the goal of ensuring long-term affordability and sustainability. CLTs prevent land from falling into the speculative real estate market, which can drive prices up. Instead, the land is retained by the trust, while homeowners own the buildings on the land. This arrangement significantly reduces the overall cost of homeownership, making it more accessible for families who might otherwise be priced out of the market.
We will focus on a specific CLT program enacted in 1992, Urban Suburban Affordables, Inc. (USA). USA Homes, which we will refer to as homes owned by Urban Suburban Affordables, is a key affordable housing program created through a collaboration between the Christian Activities Council (CAC) and the Hartford Housing Authority. Launched in 1992, the program was designed to help reduce the cost of homeownership for low- and moderate-income first-time homebuyers. USA’s initiative revolves around acquiring parcels of land and then leasing them to eligible families purchasing homes located on those parcels. This strategy is part of a broader effort to help more people afford homes, particularly in areas where rising prices have made homeownership a distant dream for many. By maintaining control over the land, USA can help ensure that housing remains affordable for future generations while allowing current owners to build up wealth, a vital aspect of addressing long-term affordability.
Ultimately, we want to uncover how USA Homes homeownership trends, sales prices, and property characteristics evolved over time in West Hartford and East Hartford. To understand how effective CLTs like Urban Suburban Affordables are in maintaining long-term affordability, it's important to examine various factors, such as home prices, property values, and neighborhood stability. This research could focus on several key aspects, including: Current Home Prices vs. Initial Purchase Prices: By comparing how much homes in USA’s land trust are selling for today versus their original purchase price, we can assess whether the homes have remained affordable over time. Property Turnover and Resale Trends: The frequency of buying and selling within the CLT can provide insight into homeownership stability. If properties are frequently resold, it may suggest a lack of long-term stability, whereas fewer sales might indicate a stronger sense of community and ownership. The goal of this research is to measure the trends and sale prices of USA’s Homes, and its impact on the affordability and stability of Hartford’s housing market, and potentially offer lessons for other cities considering similar initiatives. These findings could also provide valuable feedback to the Center for Leadership and Justice, informing improvements or adjustments to their own affordable housing programs. Below you will find a map of homes USA owns, and if you look closely and mkae out West Hartford and East Hartford, you will be able to get a feel for where the homes are located. For better viewing, we grouped homes that were in close vicinity.
Figure 1: Explore the interactive chart
Figure 2: Explore the interactive chart
Figure 3: Explore the interactive chart
The graphs abve depict a visualisation which highlights the increase in value of a USA home when it was purchased comparatively to its current market value based on Zillow estimations as well as its government assessment. The orange you see represents the initial price it was purchased into the USA homes program while the blue represents its current Zillow value estimation and the purple represents the 2023 government accessor value. Feel free to interact with the graph to view its actual number values over any of the three criteria.
Accessor prices, set by local governments, reflect the official assessed value of a property for tax purposes, based on factors like location, size, and condition, and are generally updated annually or biannually. Unlike Zillow's estimated market value, which is based on recent sales data and market predictions, accessor prices may not always reflect the current market value. Analyzing accessor prices every few years helps track changes in property values, offering insights into local tax assessments, potential market trends, and long-term investment opportunities.
We found that across our random sample of West Hartford USA homes, the median increase in value was an astonishing 356%, with the median initial USA purchase price being $73,500 and current value being $335,250. The most significant increase in value was 752% and the least significant increase was 189%. We also found that there was an increase in accessor value versus Zillow value with the median increase between accessor value and Zillow value to be 106%.
Figure 4: Explore the interactive chart
Figure 5: Explore the interactive chart
Across our random sample of East Hartford USA homes, the median increase was still an impressive 149%, with the median initial USA purchase price being $85,000 and current value being $212,000. The most significant increase in value was 349% while the least significant increase was 57%.
Across all examples, there is a consistent increase in property prices, reflecting a significant rise in the housing market over time. The magnitude of the price increase varies, with some properties experiencing steeper growth than others. The median sales price grew 431% since 1990s, while the median sale price of homes in CT grew 140%. West Hartford homes outperformed East Hartford homes in relation to both average and median percent increase as well as the median sale price in CT, while East Hartford homes shared a similar growth to median sale price in CT.
Figure 6: Explore the interactive chart
The table above visualises the number of times homes in our random sample from West Hartford and East Hartford has transferred ownership based on the number of owners each home has had based on Zillow data. In West Hartford, 40% of homes (4 homes), had only one owner since acquisition suggesting a high level of stability and long-term occupancy for USA homes homeowners. 30% (3 homes) of homes in East Hartford had only one owner since its acquisition suggesting that overall the USA homes program has successfully housed low income families and has generated not only housing stability but an opportunity to receive some investment back when taking into account the increase in value for these homes. With only 2 instances of 4 owner homes across our random sample of 20, we determine the program has been successful in ultimately keeping housing affordable thus also improving long-term occupancy.
Overall, while home ownership turnover is slightly higher in East Hartford than West Hartford, the high percentage of homes with only one or two owners reflects the success of USA’s program in maintaining stability in these housing markets.
The Center for Leadership and Justice provided our Data Visualisation class at Trinity college with data listing homes owned by Urban Suburban Affordables (USA) homes. My partner and I were assigned with the question: How have USA homeownership trends and sales prices changed over time? And given instructions to use a random set of 10 houses from West Hartford and East Hartford to explore this question. After selecting our random houses, we accessed their respective Zillow property listings as well as Online CT Assessment Database listing to pull data regarding each property’s current value, its sale history, as well as its government land assessment valuations. We noticed there seemed to be discrepancies between certain data that was provided by Zillow compared to other government data or websites, and so we resorted to defaulting to Zillow data as there was more of it and comparisons would be more viable.
We assumed sales that occurred around 1995-2000 were when the houses/land was sold to USA homes and used that as our initial price to gauge valuation increase or decrease. After compiling all the data, we began creating our visualisations. Through data wrapper we were able to use our data to create corresponding visualisations. We wanted to make note that data discrepancies did occur and closest estimate may have been used.
The data used was graciously provided to us by Tieasha Gayle, Data Manager & USA Program Coordinator, Center for Leadership and Justice, and was updated and cleaned by Jack Dougherty with student input. We also grabbed listing data and land assessment data from Zillow as well as through Vision Government Solutions data regarding the CT Online Assessment Database. A massive thanks to Professor Jack Dougherty and also to our TA Nellie Conklin, who was instramental in the course this semester! Thank you!
Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/
Vision Government Solutions: https://gis.vgsi.com/westhartfordct/